截至2016年底,我国75岁以上人口为4800万人,占总人口比重为3.5%,占65岁以上人口比重为34.8%。预计到2030年,我国75岁以上人口为9300万人,占总人口比重为6.6%,占65岁以上人口比重为38.3%。预计到2045年,我国75岁以上人口为1.8亿人,占总人口比重为12.9%,占65岁以上人口比重为49.5%。未来15年,预计中国75岁以上人口增速将逐步上升,增速区间为2.8-7.8%/年。
2016 年中国75岁以上人口占比与日本1983年相当
年份 | 65岁以上人口占比 | 75岁以上人口占比 | 75岁以上占65岁以上人口比重 |
2016 | 10.0% | 3.5% | 34.8% |
2017 | 10.5% | 3.6% | 33.9% |
2018 | 11.1% | 3.6% | 32.8% |
2019 | 11.6% | 3.7% | 32.0% |
2020 | 12.1% | 3.8% | 31.5% |
2021 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 31.6% |
2022 | 12.9% | 4.1% | 31.8% |
2023 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 32.2% |
2024 | 13.7% | 4.5% | 32.7% |
2025 | 14.2% | 4.7% | 33.4% |
2026 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 34.7% |
2027 | 15.2% | 5.5% | 36.1% |
2028 | 15.8% | 5.9% | 37.3% |
2029 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 38.1% |
2030 | 17.2% | 6.6% | 38.3% |
2031 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 38.4% |
2032 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 38.2% |
2033 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 37.8% |
2034 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 37.5% |
2035 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 37.5% |
2036 | 22.0% | 8.3% | 37.8% |
2037 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 38.2% |
2038 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 38.8% |
2039 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 39.5% |
2040 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 40.7% |
2041 | 25.0% | 10.6% | 42.3% |
2042 | 25.3% | 11.1% | 44.1% |
2043 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 46.0% |
2044 | 25.8% | 12.3% | 47.9% |
2045 | 26.0% | 12.9% | 49.5% |
- | - | - | - |
- | - | - | - |
- | - | - | - |
未来15 年中国75 岁以上人口增速为2.8-7.8%
年份 | 人口数(千人) | 同比 | 占比 | |||||
总人口 | 65 岁以上 | 75 岁以上 | 总人口 | 65 岁以上 | 75 岁以上 | 65 岁以上人口占比 | 75 岁以上 人口占比 | |
2016 | 1,382,323 | 138,273 | 48,090 | - | - | - | 10.0% | 3.5% |
2017 | 1,388,233 | 146,110 | 49,459 | 0.4% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 10.5% | 3.6% |
2018 | 1,393,686 | 154,420 | 50,719 | 0.4% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
2019 | 1,398,582 | 162,399 | 51,986 | 0.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 11.6% | 3.7% |
2020 | 1,402,848 | 169,606 | 53,355 | 0.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 12.1% | 3.8% |
2021 | 1,406,441 | 176,280 | 55,728 | 0.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 12.5% | 4.0% |
2022 | 1,409,375 | 182,218 | 58,029 | 0.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 12.9% | 4.1% |
2023 | 1,411,703 | 187,866 | 60,489 | 0.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 13.3% | 4.3% |
2024 | 1,413,512 | 193,865 | 63,452 | 0.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 13.7% | 4.5% |
2025 | 1,414,872 | 200,604 | 67,089 | 0.1% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 14.2% | 4.7% |
2026 | 1,415,800 | 207,913 | 72,189 | 0.1% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 14.7% | 5.1% |
2027 | 1,416,294 | 215,639 | 77,814 | 0.0% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 5.5% |
2028 | 1,416,391 | 223,961 | 83,519 | 0.0% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 15.8% | 5.9% |
2029 | 1,416,131 | 233,104 | 88,701 | 0.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 16.5% | 6.3% |
2030 | 1,415,545 | 243,171 | 93,085 | 0.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 17.2% | 6.6% |
相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2017-2022年中国养老产业市场运行态势及投资战略研究报告》
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